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Market sense.
(Ya gotta move it some time.)
Are you thinking of selling your grain? Smart move friends, smart move. To follow markets, set targets and pull the trigger on sales is a great skill that requires attention year-round. But finding the sweet spots should not be complicated. See for yourself. We are confident that you will find what you’ve been looking for via our app.
Let’s face it – the $/ac going into the ground this year has never been higher. Don’t forget that, similarly, crop bids are at all-time highs. Pay attention, people. You can’t afford not to!
Weekly Market Recap:
Next week, Thursday, March 31, the USDA releases its Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks report. There tends to be some volatility associated with its release. We should expect to see traders adjusting their positions ahead of Thursday. Currently, it is estimated that corn acres will be slightly lower and both soybeans and spring wheat acres will be higher compared to last year. We’ll follow all the developments and report back.
Good news this week, the CP rail strike did not last long and was resolved in a matter of a couple of days. All systems are back up and running.
On the war front, it was a bit quieter than at the start of March. Early in the week, Ukraine refused an offer by Russians to surrender in exchange for humanitarian corridors. Ukraine fought back and regained some territory around Kyiv. Russia's intensifies attacks using supersonic missiles and firing from the Black Sea. Many eyes are watching closely to see if any key exporting infrastructure is damaged. Much remains unknown as to how many acres will be planted in Ukraine with some reports suggesting it may be slashed in half. Some planting has begun in Ukraine's northwestern region.
Deal of the week:
CANOLA: $27.00+ old-crop and $22.25+ new-crop (this past Weds)
Canola: NEW HIGHS for both old and new crop canola futures! For a brief moment, canola caught a wind and flew to new heights with nearby futures reaching as high as $1177.80/MT before reversing back down. It followed Europe's rapeseed futures which made historic highs (trading over 1020 euros) before tumbling back down. Strength in veg oil markets, tight supplies, lack of sunoil exports from Ukraine and uncertainty over their coming production year is behind the strength seen. New crop canola futures continue to claw their way higher this past week. Wednesday, in the rally, old crop canola bids reached over $27/bu and new crop reached $22.25/bu.
Unlike canola futures, soybeans have not been able to break above their previous high (made Feb 24). China has been buying plenty of U.S. soybeans which has been supportive. Caution though, the current market sentiment is more-so bearish beans leading into next week's report. Higher bean acres are estimated due to the rising input cost of planting corn. We shall soon find out if that is the case.
Wheat: A bit of a snoozer this week compared to the huge swings we've experienced in the past couple of weeks. Wheat futures found some strength at close on Friday. Providing support is the war in Ukraine. It's difficult to know much of Ukraine's winter wheat crop will be harvested and exported with the ongoing war. I've read that their winter wheat is in good condition as is the French wheat crops. On the other side of the world, we have rains falling over much of the parched winter wheat growing areas in the U.S. with more is in the forecast. The crop is still in bad shape so expect more volatility to come in the following month over weather/crop concerns. We shall wait and see what the USDA releases for numbers and how markets react.
Seen new crop bids of $13/bu CWRS bids and $12.50/bu CPSR bids this week.
Barley: Strong. Some pop-ups in both old and new crop prices have appeared. Our supplies are low and farmer selling is light. Watch how corn performs after the report this week.
Corn futures are holding strong in the upper range of charts. There are big unknowns surrounding Ukraine's ability to plant a corn crop however it looks as though South America can pull off a big crop. Enough to offset the losses. We also have sky-high fertilizer costs with uncertain supplies for spring planting here in North America. Right now, Thursday's USDA report is expected to be bullish corn.
Peas: A little more strength spotted in new crop yellow and green pea bids.
Oats: Quiet market. Bids have softened at locations.
Around the farm: Another week of hauling and watching prices closely and marketing grain.
I was informed that dyed diesel is going up another 7 cents next week. Current dyed prices are sitting somewhere around $1.45/L (taxes included - Alberta) which means I could expect around $1.52/L next week. Worth noting, starting April 1, Albertans will not be paying the provincial fuel tax which is 13 cents/L on clear gas and diesel and saving 4 cents on marked gas and diesel. Also worth noting, the federal carbon tax is set to rise again on April 1. Save here, pay there.
Have a great weekend y'all!
Cheers!
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