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What you need to know.
(Just the essentials.)
You wouldn't go skydiving without a parachute or, rather, combining without the appropriate header, right? It’s just like you wouldn't market your commodities without legitimate insights and intel with buyers and pricing data! I can't wait for you to see what we've been up to! I’m getting impatient myself, but don’t worry. Good things come to those who wait!
Weekly Market Recap:
- Wheat markets began the week soaring higher on news that Russia bombed Ukraine’s grain terminal in Mykolaiv
- Nothing came from the Russia/Turkey talks to set up a grain export corridor for safe passage of Ukrainian grain
- Dry areas of the Prairies should receive rains in the coming weeks meanwhile the forecast turns hotter and drier for the U.S. Midwest
- Today’s WASDE report was nothing exciting; markets are still waiting to see how the forecast plays out and crops fair
- If you want a quick market update, I like this one. Click here to have a listen.
Canola: Sideways action. Indonesia cuts its palm oil export tax and soy oil losses contributed to canola tumbling a bit lower but strong soybean action is supporting the canola market. The rising prices in energy/crude oil markets are also lending a hand of support.
Soybeans attempted to make a new all-time high earlier this week. China's strong demand, lower Brazilian production and tight global stocks are all contributing to its strength. There’s little room for error and the increasingly hot and dry forecast across the U.S. is being closely monitored. Today’s USDA report pegged global soybean ending stocks slightly higher than trade expectations.
Wheat: Struggling to find direction right now. The USDA pegged global wheat stocks just under trade estimates. Russia's 22/23 wheat crop was adjusted higher and India's wheat crop fell to 106 MMT, mind you this is still well above other current estimates of only 99 MMT. Ukraine's production numbers were unchanged but the report implied that they'd still be able to export 10 million tonnes this coming year. This is obviously a big question mark. Also worth noting is that the first assessment of spring wheat will occur at the end of the month and has the potential to change the wheat outlook. All that said, world wheat supplies are not building and are actually declining to 6-year lows.
Barley: Barley bids are fairly steady this week. Some specials are available for old-crop.
Corn futures turn back higher. Global new-crop corn supplies came in quite a bit higher than what the trade initially suspected today. The increase is mostly due to the USDA increasing Ukraine's crop from 19.5 MMT to 25 MMT, a sizable gain. Still, corn futures shrugged at the news and ended today with slight gains due to tight numbers and the inaccessibility of Ukraine’s crop. The weather patterns will be monitored closely the next couple of months as there is talk of a hot and dry bias in the U.S.
Peas: Bids vary. Seeing some specials popping up for old-crop. $18/bu for old-crop yellows and $16/bu greens.
Oats: Oat bids remain largely unchanged from last week.
Around the farm: We finally received some decent moisture here this morning! Our neighbours reported that 3/4"-1" fell. Our crops sure needed it! My first seeded wheat is at the 3-leaf, 1-tiller stage and it looks like the canola wants to really take off (the first seeded canola already has two big true leaves). We switched out my fat tires for the skinnies on the sprayer early this year just because the ground was so dry and we wanted to reduce our footprint while we work on doing in-crop wheat herbicides. I struggled a little bit with timing on spraying my wheat as the weather just isn't ideal. There are chances of rain pretty much every day and when it looks like there’s a window of opportunity, the winds are high. Yesterday was an absolute perfect day to spray, so although my wheat staging is just a tad earlier than I'd like it to be, we sprayed as much as we could. I continue to look for windows of opportunity to get the rest of the wheat acres in before we hit up the canola again for second pass in-crop herbicides. Anyhow, I hope you are getting the weather you need for good crops and good spraying! Good luck out there.
Oh side note, last week's urea quote was $960/MT stored until spring, and this week I was quoted $915/MT. Just to give you an idea (and apparently it's moving $10/MT higher for the next little bit).
Have a great weekend!
Cheers!
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