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October is here.
(Spoiler alert: It's gorgeous.)
Hello October!! The beautiful crisp morning air is upon us, which means harvest is over (for some of us). For those still plugging away, we are thinking of you. What a year it has been. If nothing else, we have once again shown the world, and ourselves, how resilient farmers are in the face of challenging conditions. We don’t complain, we simply put our heads down and get to work—after all, we are farmers. What else would we do? However, it’s time to kick back a little.
So take a breather. Lift your feet up. Take a load off your plate. Let us organize and sort the 'best-in-class' for you. We are digging deeper than ever to find you those 'not to be missed' deals so that you can be the envy of your neighbours. From everyday offers to pop-up specials, our pricing library will make your eyes sparkle. Be inspired by leading grain companies across the Prairies and what they have to offer.
Weekly Market Recap:
If you are following the news or even fertilizer prices, you'll find that there are large world problems relating to energy. Prices are skyrocketing overseas for energy sources as Europe and China are caught scrambling to secure enough supply to avoid more blackouts and factory closures. Make no mistake, this will play a role in what our inputs and grain and oilseeds are worth.
Grain markets were bouncing around early in the week in anticipation of Thursdays USDA's small grains report. The quick and dirty version is that the U.S. is working with way more soybeans than thought, a little more corn and less wheat. Naturally, soybean markets tumbled lower, corn remained fairly neutral, canola added strength, and wheat is back up trading in the upper range.
Deals of the week: $21.00/bu canola,
$7.50/bu oats, $11.70/bu 1CWRS13.5, $11.81/bu 1CPSR11.5 ??!
Canola: Ending the week in an uptrend. Canola made some nice gains this week leading into the USDA report with Nov. futures trading just over $909/MT yesterday. Today canola managed to pull off a little more strength. We are seeing $21/bu canola targets be picked up for Dec/Jan.
The big shocker from Thursday's report - soybeans. The trade guess for stocks in all positions hovered around 174 million, but the report proved otherwise with stocks at 256 million bu. This sent soybean and meal futures tumbling lower.
Where does canola go from here? There's still no clear signal.
On the negative: soybeans are turning lower with the larger than expected stock numbers, ocean freight costs are at historical highs and Canadian crushers have scaled back.
On the positive: canola crop is small, canola and soybean oil managed to hold their own even as soybean futures fell the past two days, palm oil futures are setting new highs, rapeseed in the EU is on the rise (they are short on fuel, thus making biofuel more expensive), and we have the two Micheals back from China, which has an energy crisis on its hands.
Wheat: Making some gains. Thursday’s report was bullish wheat. Stocks came in 70 million bu under trade guesses. The biggest market gains were seen in the Kansas market with a jump of about 20 cents after the report released bigger than expected cuts to winter wheat numbers. Check out those CPSR bids! Minneapolis futures actually traded better before the report was out even though Thursday's report was bullish on wheat. Wheat has yet to breakthrough resistance but is showing a strong tone right now.
Seeing good demand and prices for wheat CWRS bids from Dec.-March. Prices are hitting $11.70+/bu. As for a 1 CPSR 11.5, (not sure if this is a glitch) but GrainsConnect was advertising $11.81/bu for Nov. delivery yesterday! Seems too good to be true … I’ll see if I can get confirmation on it—either way $11.20/bu Oct. listed today isn't too shabby. If you have Durum to market, many locations are offering $20/bu.
Barley: Barley bids remain strong right now. The risk is that as corn harvest ramps up in the states more corn moves our way. The USDA report did also increase the barley yield slightly and so its production numbers came in just above what traders expected. World barley supplies look to be in good shape. Seems like our prices will be hinging on China's demand. Either way, look for those pop-up opportunities as $8.50/bu targets are triggering.
Peas: Quiet. Not much has changed since last week. Demand is sparse.
Oats: Strong market. Oat futures keep climbing higher. The USDA confirmed that oat production and acres are at its lowest level seen in years. At just 39.8 million bushels, the U.S. oat crop is sitting almost 40% lower than last year. It doesn't help that Canada's oat crop was also hit hard by drought. Oats are in very short supply and most of our oats are bought up by the U.S. Lucky for us, ocean freight is irrelevant so we can fetch the higher bushel values we are seeing today.
Around the farm: I think COVID got me (not confirmed) but it seems like that's the only thing that people can get nowadays right? Although I've had one vaccine, it still hit me pretty hard with a couple nights of fever and coughing, and sore throat, and no taste or smell. Lucky for me, I'm still young (or so I like to think) and strong and will get over this in no time. I don’t have time to be sick! So, even though I wasn't feeling well I still went out to pull staples and old wire out of overgrown fencelines. It felt good to still do something even if it’s not recommended. Either way, we are prepping for winter by blowing out my irrigation lines and doing fence work. Next up, finishing up harvest and dirt work.
Hope you all have a good weekend!!
Cheers!
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