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Downhill run
(Can't always go higher!)
How fitting my theme this week for markets is relatable to skiing. We take the chairlift nice and slow to the top of the mountain. Seconds later we can crash pretty darn hard and fast as we race down the hill. Markets are similar. This week they are in the red, not the ideal start to 2022. Even the strong ones need a break every now and then. I hope you were able to take risk off the table and make some recent sales. If you missed that, perhaps there's still time for you to catch up.
Check out your local bids on Farmbucks. Don’t forget we have canola bids streaming 24/7 for everybody, so, if you are curious about getting up-to-the-minute pricing data, dip your toes in the water with canola and then, if you like what you see, jump on in!
Weekly Market Recap:
Wheat still crashing lower. Old-crop canola futures took a hard hit on the chin both Wednesday and Thursday. Soybeans down. Corn holds.
Monday, U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. day. Canola will trade.
Deals of the week: Look at Durum, Barley and new crop Canola
Canola: Old-crop canola fell pretty hard mid-week whereas new-crop futures actually held up. Stocks are tight. Most of our canola is headed to crushers as exports are slow. Noticing that buyers are looking to secure some new crop canola.
Rains are forecasted for Brazil and Argentina next week which weighed down the soybean market. On the bullish side, the USDA made extensive cuts to South America’s soybean production this week. Predicted rainfall is still not enough to end the drought. Weather, weather, weather.
Wheat: Yuck. Spec fund sell-off and bearish report numbers are all contributing to the beating of wheat markets. The USDA pegged U.S. winter wheat acres planted to be slightly higher than thought and increased ending stocks however these ending stocks are still tight, similar to 2013 and 2014.
We are finding that a few mainline companies are offering various 'specials' to try and secure some old-crop supply. They need wheat but the markets are not doing enough to entice farmers to sell at these lows.
We need some kind of new news to turn it around. Russia and Ukraine are still being watched closely as tensions are still high. Winter wheat in the Southern Plains are still parched.
Durum has held up well through all of this. Good prices are still available. Be mindful, however, that the USDA did add tonnes to its production numbers earlier this week.
Barley: Barley bids are weakening along with feed wheat values. Feed wheat hasn't taken the same hard hit as the gradable wheat markets and is slower to respond. That said, the extremely weak wheat markets finally rubbed off on the feed market as cash bids are declining.
Corn futures are holding their ground. Additional cuts to South American production were made by the USDA but it was as expected by the trade. Ending stocks came in just under trade estimates.
Peas: Generally quiet, we haven't seen much action. The USDA confirmed an extremely small crop was grown in the U.S. last year, forcing them to shop around the world for peas. This proved to be very supportive for the prices we've seen. Green peas remain at a discount to yellows (yellows are more often found in feed rations and we all know finding feed crops has been very competitive).
Oats: Moving lower. Oat futures have been falling since mid-November so it's hard to justify higher cash bids. The USDA contained no surprises. The low supplies are already factored in the market.
Flax and Lentils: Bids are weakening.
Around the farm: I am loving the warmer weather! We had the chance to plow the yard, move out some canola and wash the truck and trailers. I also helped plow the ice rink and get it ready for another skating party. I can't remember if I had mentioned this before, but we have made a fabulous Zamboni using odds and ends around the farm, like an AMS drum to hold water, and garden hose, pipe and an old blanket. Check out the pic! Who says farmers aren’t resourceful! After a few minor adjustments, it works like a dream!! That ice is slick! I hope you all have a great weekend and are able to enjoy some warmer temperatures!
Cheers y'all!
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