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Don't be fooled.
(There's deals around every corner.)
While it’s now officially April, some of you will be seeding within 30 days. I salute you in advance and remind everyone to download the Farmbucks app—before you start scratching the dirt. We have still seen plenty of highs and killer bids on all major commodities, so don’t be a fool. Set some price targets and make a buck or two to pay for all that high-priced fertilizer!
Weekly Market Recap:
Markets are volatile as per usual and trading the news headlines. Markets, especially wheat, tanked Tuesday upon news of progress in Russia/Ukraine peace talks. The markets moved higher the following day after it was realized they may have been too optimistic and overreacted. It is important to note, that there has been no ceasefire negotiated to date and the war is ongoing.
Thursday’s USDA prospective planting acres did catch traders offside on a few commodities. Corn was the big shocker with acres at 89.5 million vs. trade expectations of 92.0. Spring wheat numbers also came in lower than trade estimates and saw a nice little rally. On the flip side, soybean acres were higher at 91.0 million acres vs. the anticipated number of 88.7. There was no surprise in winter wheat acres. Durum, barley, cotton, lentil, sunflower, and pea acres are also all up slightly year over year. U.S. oat and canola acre intentions remained fairly flat.
Deal of the week:
$22.20+/bu new-crop canola
$14.00/bu new-crop y. peas
Canola: Canola continues to perform fairly well despite the bearish soybean news and action. Old crop futures did pull back a little however new crop values continue to still edge higher. Global vegetable oil supply/demand is tight this coming year, especially without any of Ukraine's sunflower and rapeseed. New-crop canola will react more as we inch closer to spring and weather becomes important to secure our crops.
Earlier this week you could still find $26/bu old-crop canola.
Soybean futures fell hard on news that the U.S. may plant a record amount of acres this spring and current stocks are higher than estimated.
Wheat: Spring wheat received a bullish surprise. The USDA released considerably lower spring wheat acres than the trade estimate. It reported 11.2 million acres are to be planted vs. the 11.8 average trade guess. The market responded by flying higher but failed to hold its gains and closed well off the highs. Targets are important tools to use to catch that extra $0.25+/bu in these wild swings. Meanwhile, Chicago and Kansas wheat markets failed to show strength and ended the week lower.
As we continue into April, U.S. weather and crop conditions come to the forefront. The U.S. winter wheat crop is still struggling even though some rains have fallen. Russian/Ukrainian developments continue to have a big influence on the direction of futures.
Barley: Barley bids are mixed this week but should remain well supported with corn's renewed strength.
The estimated U.S. corn acres are much lower than anticipated and shocked traders. New-crop corn futures lead the way higher.
We are still seeing some stand-out old crop malt barley bids if you have any left to sell. Check them out!
Peas: Pea bids have gained a little strength. Seeing many $13/bu off-combine yellow pea bids out there but let it be known $14/bu is also available for the same timeframe. Don't be fooled! New-crop greens are fetching $13-13.50/bu.
Around the farm: I continue to haul grain in between snowstorms. Monday, we received another few inches of wet heavy snow and all of a sudden it felt like winter again. I don't like to risk safety or get my trucks full of salt so there's absolutely no rush around here to haul on crappy roads. To boot, it's no small drive, either. My nearest elevators are still 130-plus km away so we have to make it enjoyable for all!
If you aren’t working in the fields and are free next Tuesday, April 5, I will be speaking on a panel and attending Calgary's Chamber's Cultivate: Ag Summit. Come and say hi!
I hope you all had a great week and I hope you have an even better weekend!
Have a great weekend y'all!
Cheers!
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