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Calls, texts, emails, app notifications … where does it end? Daily market information flows toward us faster than we can digest it. Argh! Try to keep up. One day there’s war, then no war, then rain, then no rain, markets are up, down and sideways all at once.
Don’t like it? Let us help you. to not feel overwhelmed. Find your next killer deal on Farmbucks and sell grain if it’s right for you. The call is yours. The power is on your hands. Read on below to see what was worth noteworthy, because we all know how fast prices come and go lately.
Weekly Market Recap:
Choppy week. Mostly sideways action.
All markets are closed Monday for Family Day and U.S. Presidents' Day.
Deals of the week: $12.75/bu old-crop or $11.25/bu new-crop CWRS, $19.25+/bu new-crop canola, $12 old-crop CPS/feed wheat, $18/bu yellow peas
Canola: Not much news to report. Canola futures are hanging in there with more sideways action just below its most recent high. Our canola supplies are tight with a large majority heading to crushers as you all are aware. Crushers have their needs covered off for the next couple of months, so watch to make a sale April onwards. New-crop futures are faring a little better than old-crop futures, making more small gains.
Soybean markets are currently supporting canola as the South American soybean crop continues to get a little worse. Just a couple months ago reports warned us of a potential record large crop of around 143 MMT. Today, revised estimates are now sitting around 125 MMT. Still, even these numbers seem high and will most likely continue to come down more. Too much rain in northern regions of Brazil are causing quality concerns and the hot temperatures and lack of moisture to the south are to blame. Due to lower than anticipated production, China has been turning to the U.S. and buying up some new-crop beans.
Wheat: Wheat futures don’t know what to do as nobody knows what cards Russia wants to play. War? No war? There are many conflicting reports. The wheat markets are volatile due to the potential of movement disruptions in the Black Sea. The latest news out is that Russia has additional routine practice missile drills planned this Saturday. All eyes are watching to see what Russia does next after these drills on the weekend amid lingering fears of invasion. Earlier this week wheat futures fell on news that Russia was moving troops back off the Ukraine border to camps. Then, a day or two later, the U.S. stated that Russia hasn't followed through and actually moved in thousands more troops near the Ukraine border and can still invade at any moment. So wheat markets climbed back up. Like us, the markets don't know how to react or who to believe. On top of all this and also in play is that the U.S. winter wheat crop is vulnerable to a winter storm that is coming as they had received some warmer, melting temperatures as of late.
There are lots of specials and demand available for wheat with $12.75/bu CWRS potentially being the best bid I've heard of today. More volatility is sure to come so keep a close watch and use targets to extract premiums out of these markets.
Barley: We have seen barley bids pull back just a little bit at some locations. Unprecedented amounts of corn from the U.S. are being shipped in to fill our feed needs.
Corn futures bounced up and down this week. The stronger energy markets help support corn, as corn is also an energy source, ethanol. On the flip side, earlier this week the de-escalation news of the Russia/Ukraine conflict pressured it. Corn yields are hurt in South America but not enough to cause worry or a world supply problem.
Peas: A bit of strength seen in old crop yellow peas with $18/bu targets hitting. Check your local offers.
Oats: Finding a little nearby demand with a few specials being offered although bids have softened.
Lentils: Red lentils received support earlier this week on news that India lowered its import tariffs.
Around the farm: Not much, just watching markets. I potentially sold a tractor. Quoting and booking more chemical spring needs. I have a fertilizer meeting next week (will let you know how that goes). Reminiscing of my warm holiday taken last week as you can tell by the photos!
I hope you all have a fabulous long weekend!
Cheers friends!
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