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Waterfall effect.
(Which markets can ride the wave?)
It's hard to climb against the downward flow of water—just look at the picture above for proof! Markets act in a similar way: when the big markets like corn and soybeans slip, some others get caught up in its general direction. Which ones are strong enough to go against the flow though?
Farmbucks works to bring you even more bids and more coverage week to week. So, keep watch as more is coming soon downstream! If you’re lucky, you might just make a big splash. At Farmbucks, we like to think of ourselves as the lifeguard. We teach you what you need to know about water safety and then it’s up to you to take the plunge!
Market Recap:
Tough week for markets. They take a step back this week (with the exception of oats).
Canola: Canola took it on the chin this Wednesday as futures fell around $34-40/MT. Soybeans and veg oil markets turned lower and rain events occurred across the Prairies. We farmers all know most of the damage that has already happened is irreversible and the rains are 'too little, too late'. A small silver lining is the smoke cover since it provides some protection and stalls the plants until additional moisture comes and helps fill out whatever pods exist and slow the overall yield losses.
Also, it doesn't help that Ag Canada basically left its projection on canola production numbers unchanged from this spring. What are they smoking?! Numbers are actually projected to be not just one or two, but rather a few million tonnes below their estimate of 19.9 million tonnes. Last year we used and exported just over 21 million tonnes, and if we only have an actual crop around 17 million tonnes … well, we have some pretty major rationing required. Either way, traders see the moisture and the overall ag report as bearish and thus markets turned lower.
The U.S. soybean crop still actually looks good so far as it enters its most important growing stages where weather is crucial. Its weather forecasts look good right now. As you know, if soybeans can climb that'll give a boost to canola prices, but if it continues lower, then it will act like a drag and limit canola's gains.
Even though canola was hit hard mid-week, it has shown strength and somewhat bucked the downward trend that soybeans is experiencing. It hasn’t regained everything it lost, but it’s trying to claw back some of those losses.
Wheat: Struggling. Significant gains were made over the past week across all three markets but they too, got caught up in the general move of market sell-offs as showers fell across the Prairies and the U.S. Wheat numbers look to be plentiful in the overall world picture. Big winter wheat crops are coming off in the U.S. which has entered the export, feed, and mill channels. We shall see if this is just a correction in a larger move upward and if there are still some premiums yet to be factored in for our small spring wheat crop.
Durum prices are on the rise as production numbers keep getting cut lower here and around the world. It is suggested that they will keep climbing. Stay tuned.
Barley: As we know our barley crops are not doing well and prices have recently come up to really good price levels and there may be a little more yet; at least until the new crop corn comes available. It’s corn that's weighing down how high barley prices can go, as feeders will look for cheaper alternatives. So far the U.S. corn situation resembles a bumper crop in the central parts of the States. This will provide an offset to the drought-stricken corn crops in our neighbouring northwestern U.S. growing regions.
Peas: Pretty quiet again this week. I know farmers are starting to desiccate in the southern Prairie areas. Yield forecasts are lower here, but will China come to the table and buy like they did last year? Farmer selling is quiet as they are cautious to make any new contracts without knowing what they will be able to pull off in terms of yield and quality.
Oats: Oat prices are on the rise. With lower acres and poor yield projections here and in the States, it is expected for this market to strengthen some more.
Around the farm: Rain came but I wasn't home to enjoy it! I chose instead to ignore my crops and take off for the week, this time, to the lovely Invermere area in the province of British Columbia! The smoke still blanketed the sky but daily temperatures are more enjoyable. It’s funny, I actually was getting used to and enjoying the 30°C weather back home if you can believe it. Now even 22°C feels cold! But don’t you worry, myself and my team, still operate Farmbucks everyday! I can be on the boat or by a pool, I still provide you with ALL the updates. Farmbucks allows you to do the same, get a quick check on prices and carry on! Hope you all have a great weekend!
Cheers!
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